<p>The primary objective of this proposal is to develop a framework to identify the most likely source of rutting within the pavement system and the presence of mixture instability in the surface layer within the first few years of the pavement life. Currently, the only accurate method of identifying the source of rutting is to cut trenches and observe deformation in the various layers of the pavement structure, a process that is inconvenient, destructive, and expensive. The proposed system encompasses analysis of routinely collected data including rut profile, measurement of air voids (AV) content from field cores, and backcalculation of in-situ moduli of each of the layers. The researchers are aware that sufficient data may not be available to conduct this analysis. A component is also added to quantify the risk due to difference in predicted performance using the proposed analysis and the traditional rut depth measurement tools. The proposed procedure is unique in the sense that it is independent of the rut depth magnitude, a feature that allows the early identification of rutting and instability of the surface layer so that the appropriate corrective action for remediation can be taken. The risk assessment showed that if agencies observe significant rutting in their states then they should use the proposed procedure rather than rut depth measurements from RSP. This procedure provides the necessary tool for the state agencies to implement appropriate pavement rehabilitation strategies.</p>