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Business indices play a c r i tical role in summarizing the business conditions of the economy and
indicating the forthcoming of phase changes in business cycle. The useful indices should accurately reflect
the business reality and dynamic changes of the economy. In the pas t decades , signi ficant indus t ry
t ransformation from manufacturing to services has been observed in both New York State/Metro area and the
ent i re nation. The share of goods in US GDP has declined from 54% to 35% and the share of services has
increased f rom 34% to 56% from Q1 1953 to Q2 2003. In New York, t h e dominance of sugar refining,
garment manufacturing, and publishing in early years have also been replaced by growing industr ies of
Finance, Insurance and Real Estate (FIRE) sector. However , before the US Transportation Service Index
being developed in 2003, i n formation from services sectors i s signi ficant ly underrepresented. Among the
current four coincident and ten leading indicators of NBER, there is no single index specifically measuring
services sector s. In New York, there is no single service index in place to help government agencies and
pr ivate sectors monitor the dynamics of the business cycle and issue ear ly warning signals. For fil ling the gap
in New York, we propose this study to assess the usefulness of the US Transportation Service Index for New
York State/Metro Area and explore the possibil ity of developing a New York State/Met ro Transportation
Service Index .

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